Published: January 2, 2026 | Category: Gold, Commodities, Mining
Gold hit $4,400+! The BEST year since 1979! Mining stocks EXPLODED! ๐ฅ Gold surged 65% in 2025, its sharpest price rise in 46 years since the record jump of 133% in 1979. The yellow metal broke through $4,000/oz for the first time in October 2025.
According to the World Gold Council, gold is en route to mark its strongest performance in a calendar year since 1979. The rally was fueled by tariff concerns, central bank buying (China, Russia, India), geopolitical tensions (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East), Fed rate cuts, and a weakening US dollar (-10% YTD).
Silver surged even more dramatically โ +144% in 2025, its sharpest jump since 1979! Platinum rose +110%. J.P. Morgan forecasts gold to push toward $5,000/oz by Q4 2026, with $6,000/oz a possibility longer term.
#1. Barrick Mining Corporation (B)
2025 Performance Analysis
Barrick Mining (formerly Barrick Gold, ticker changed to B in May 2025) delivered an exceptional year with record quarterly operating cash flow and free cash flow. Q3 2025 saw FCF of $1.5 billion (+274% vs Q2) and operating cash flow of $2.4 billion (+82% vs Q2).
The company produced 829,000 ounces of gold and 55,000 tonnes of copper in Q3. Net earnings reached $1.3 billion ($0.76/share) vs $483 million a year ago (+170% YoY). EBITDA margin expanded to 59% vs 46% a year earlier.
Key catalyst: Mali dispute resolution โ Barrick officially resumed operational control of its Mali gold mine in December. A Malian judge ordered the return of 3 metric tons of seized gold (~$400 million). Additionally, Barrick is exploring a potential IPO of its North American gold assets (“NewCo”).
- Free Cash Flow: $1.5 billion (+274% QoQ)
- Operating Cash Flow: $2.4 billion (record)
- Net Earnings: $1.3B ($0.76/share) +170% YoY
- Gold Production: 829,000 oz | Copper: 55,000 tonnes
- Dividend: $0.175/share (base +25%, plus performance dividend)
- Share Buybacks: $1B YTD, program expanded to $1.5B
2026 Outlook
2025 gold production guidance: 3.15-3.5M oz. Copper production expected to grow to 200-230K tonnes (+12% YoY). Key catalysts: Mali restart, NewCo IPO exploration, Reko Diq and Lumwana expansion projects (30% production growth target by 2030). Analyst consensus: “Strong Buy” with $44 target.
#2. Newmont Corporation (NEM)
2025 Performance Analysis
Newmont, the world’s largest gold miner, delivered record free cash flow of $4.5 billion YTD โ an all-time annual record achieved in just the first three quarters! Q3 FCF was $1.6 billion, marking the fourth consecutive quarter with FCF exceeding $1 billion.
Q3 2025 EPS of $1.71 beat estimates by 18.75%. Revenue reached $5.52 billion (+6.36% vs estimates). Realized gold price: $3,539/oz vs $2,518 prior year (+40% YoY). The company produced 1.42 million attributable gold ounces in Q3.
Newmont achieved near-zero net debt with $5.6 billion in cash and $9.6 billion in total liquidity. The company reduced debt by $2 billion in Q3 alone and received a Moody’s upgrade to A3. Returned $823 million to shareholders via buybacks and dividends in Q3.
- Free Cash Flow YTD: $4.5 billion (record!)
- Q3 FCF: $1.6 billion (4th consecutive $1B+ quarter)
- Realized Gold Price: $3,539/oz (+40% YoY)
- Q3 EPS: $1.71 (beat by 18.75%)
- Cash: $5.6 billion | Near-zero net debt
- Share Buybacks: $3.3B executed, $2.7B remaining
2026 Outlook
2026 production expected at lower end of 2025 range (4.0-4.2M oz). EPS growth estimates: +74% in 2025, +18% in 2026. CEO transition to Natascha Viljoen on January 1, 2026. Key projects: Ahafo North (Ghana) entering production. Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). Forward P/E: 12.8x (5% discount to industry).
#3. Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)
2025 Performance Analysis
Agnico Eagle delivered record financial results in Q3 2025 with EPS of $2.16 (beat estimates by 10.77%). Revenue reached $3.06 billion vs $2.95B expected. The company generated $1.2 billion in free cash flow in Q3 alone.
Gold production hit 867,000 ounces in Q3, reaching 77% of full-year guidance. Average realized gold price: $3,476/oz. Cash costs: $933/oz (excluding royalties). The company’s low-cost Canadian operations in Abitibi and Nunavut continue to drive superior margins.
Financial position strengthened significantly: repaid $400 million debt, returned $350 million to shareholders, increased net cash to $2.2 billion. Declared quarterly dividend of $0.40/share โ Agnico has paid dividends every year since 1983!
- Gold Production: 867,000 oz (77% of annual target)
- Q3 EPS: $2.16 (beat by 10.77%, nearly doubled YoY)
- Revenue: $3.06 billion (record)
- Free Cash Flow: $1.2 billion (Q3)
- Net Cash: $2.2 billion
- Dividend: $0.40/share quarterly (42 years of dividends!)
2026 Outlook
Full-year production guidance: 3.4 million oz. Five key pipeline projects advancing: Canadian Malartic, Detour Lake, Upper Beaver, Hope Bay, San Nicolas. Detour projected to generate $2B+ annual free cash flow at current spot prices. Expected reserve/resource growth of 0.25-0.5M oz. Analyst consensus: “Strong Buy.”
#4. Barrick Gold (GOLD โ B)
Note: Barrick Gold Corporation officially changed its name to Barrick Mining Corporation and its NYSE ticker from “GOLD” to “B” in May 2025, underscoring its ambition as a leading gold AND copper producer. The +116% return represents performance under the old GOLD ticker during the transition period.
Key copper growth: 55,000 tonnes in Q3 2025 (up from 48,000 tonnes in Q3 2024). Copper production YTD is +21% higher than 2024, driven by 42% increase at Lumwana. Copper revenue expected to climb ~30% vs 2024.
Goldman Sachs 2026 copper forecast: ~$11,400/ton. Barrick’s copper portfolio (Lumwana, Reko Diq) provides diversification from pure gold exposure and positions it for the electrification-driven copper demand surge.
#5. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)
2025 Performance Analysis
Freeport-McMoRan, the world’s largest publicly traded copper producer, delivered solid returns in 2025 on the back of copper +33% YTD gains. Copper is critical for EVs and clean energy (each EV requires 2-4x more copper than traditional vehicles).
The Grasberg mine in Indonesia continues to optimize production. Grasberg is one of the world’s largest gold and copper deposits. FCX benefits from both the gold and copper supercycles, with significant gold byproduct revenue from its copper operations.
Supply deficit growing: new copper mine development takes 10-15 years. Existing mines facing declining grades. Goldman Sachs sees copper as a “favored long-run industrial metal” due to electrification-driven demand and supply constraints.
- Copper: +33% YTD (critical for EV/clean energy)
- Grasberg Mine: World-class gold + copper asset
- EV Copper Demand: 2-4x more per vehicle
- Supply Deficit: Growing as mine development lags
- Goldman 2026 Copper Forecast: ~$11,400/ton
2026 Outlook
Copper is entering a structural deficit driven by electrification (EVs, renewable energy, grid infrastructure) and underinvestment in new supply. Freeport is positioned as the “copper king” to benefit from this multi-year supercycle. Additional gold byproduct revenue provides downside protection.
๐ 2026 Gold & Commodities Outlook
J.P. Morgan, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley all pick Gold for 2026!
Key 2026 Catalysts
- J.P. Morgan Gold Target – $5,000/oz by Q4 2026!
- UBS Target – $4,500/oz by June 2026
- Central Bank Buying – China, Russia, India continue accumulating
- Geopolitical Hedge – US-China tensions, Ukraine, Middle East
- Real Interest Rates – Declining globally (supports gold)
- Dollar Weakness – Expected with Fed rate cuts
- Copper Demand – EV/clean energy driving structural deficit
Key Statistics
- Gold 2025: +65% YTD (best since 1979)
- Gold High: $4,550/oz (December 26, 2025)
- Silver 2025: +144% (sharpest since 1979)
- Platinum 2025: +110%
- Newmont Realized Price: $3,539/oz (+40% YoY)
- Central Bank Demand Q3: ~585 tonnes/quarter
๐ Gold Bull Run in Perspective
According to J.P. Morgan, the current gold bull run has more room to run:
- Duration – Current run below average of prior bull runs
- ETF Inflows – Only 30-40% of typical bull run totals so far
- Gold Share of Assets – 2.8% currently, could rise to 4-5%
- Central Bank Demand – Expected to remain elevated in 2026
- Q3 2025 Demand – 980 tonnes (+50% vs prior 4-quarter average)
โ ๏ธ Investment Risks
- Leverage: Gold miners = leveraged play on gold prices (higher volatility)
- Price Reversal: Any pullback in gold hits miners disproportionately
- Operational Risk: Mining projects face execution challenges
- Geopolitical: Jurisdiction risks (Mali, Indonesia, etc.)
- Cost Inflation: Labor and consumables costs rising 6-7%
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Gold miners are leveraged plays on gold prices with higher volatility than the underlying commodity. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.